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Thursday, 8 April 2021
quote [ My model suggests that the next [peak in violence] will be worse than the one in 1970 because demographic variables such as wages, standards of living and a number of measures of intra-elite confrontation are all much worse this time ]
2020, we ain't playin', now it's lit for everything
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Comments
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steele said @ 4:15pm GMT on 8th Apr
Daniel Szechi, professor of early modern history at the University of Manchester in England, agrees that not enough time has passed for patterns to have emerged. However, he believes "cliodynamics" could eventually work, once humanity racks up a few more centuries of good record-keeping. "Maybe 500 years from now we will have sufficient data and sufficient number crunching power to really make use of the data we will have generated and stored in vast quantities since about 1900," Szechi said in an email.
Pretty optimistic to think we're gonna survive another 500 years. |
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avid said @ 5:30am GMT on 9th Apr
This seems like it could just be a discreet cosine transform applied to various countries' histories of violence. Even if there is some correlation, it makes more sense to predict violence based on a direct analysis of current conditions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discrete_cosine_transform |
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Hugh E. said @ 8:15am GMT on 9th Apr
Apparently related to a dynamical system. But that's up to you math nerds to work out. Have at it.
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